Barabak: Beyond The Fight For The House, Here's What At Stake In The Senate - Beritaja

There’s a logic for the fearsome redistricting fight raging crossed America. It’s about Democrats trying to rein successful Donald Trump and his rogue-elephant regime.

Or, if you’re the country’s aspiring strongman, it’s about avoiding accountability and sanction.

That’s why Trump and chap Republicans are trying to rig the midterm election, by gerrymandering legislature lines successful hopes of boosting the GOP’s chances of keeping its tenuous clasp connected the House past 2026.

California Democrats are seeking payback by redrawing the state’s legislature lines successful hopes of swiping 5 aliases much GOP-held seats. Voters will person their opportunity connected the matter Nov. 4, erstwhile they determine Proposition 50.

Of course, location are two branches of Congress. Why, then, is location truthful overmuch attraction connected the House? Simply put, it’s because of the steep likelihood Democrats look trying to triumph power of the Senate, which are location betwixt slim and nary — pinch slim past seen cinching his saddle earlier cantering retired of town.

Let’s return a infinitesimal for a speedy refresher.

Every 2 years, each 435 House seats are connected the ballot. Senate position are staggered and tally six years, truthful about a 3rd of the chamber’s 100 seats are up for a ballot successful each national election. In 2026, there will beryllium 35 Senate contests.

Most won’t beryllium remotely competitive.

In fact, much than 2 twelve of those races are efficaciously complete earlier they begin, fixed the advantage 1 statement holds complete the other. Mississippi, for instance, will nonstop a Democrat to the U.S. Senate the time that Delaware elects a Republican; some will hap correct aft Trump and Adam Schiff get inked pinch matching “I Love L.A.” tattoos.

That leaves 9 Senate races that are astatine slightest somewhat competitive. Of those, 3 are considered toss-ups: open-seat contests successful Michigan and North Carolina and the title successful Georgia, wherever Democrat Jon Ossoff is seeking a 2nd term.

Democrats request to summation 4 seats to return power of the Senate, meaning moreover if they triumph each 3 of those even-steven races — which is acold from definite — they still request to successfully take sides seats successful Minnesota and New Hampshire and prime up astatine slightest 1 different GOP-held seat.

That’s wherever the going gets tough.

Kamala Harris won Maine, which suggests Republican Susan Collins could beryllium vulnerable. But the five-term legislator has many times managed to bent on, even successful bully Democratic years.

The 3 different races are tougher still.

Ohio utilized to beryllium a awesome Midwestern battleground, but it’s grown solidly Republican. Democrats landed their prized recruit, erstwhile Sen. Sherrod Brown, who narrowly mislaid his 2024 reelection bid and whitethorn beryllium the only Democrat pinch a realistic changeable astatine the seat. Still, he’s facing an uphill conflict successful the typical predetermination against Republican Jon Husted, an ex-lieutenant politician who was appointed to switch Vice President JD Vance.

In Iowa, wherever Republican Joni Ernst is retiring, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson starts retired the favourite successful different authorities that’s grown progressively red. (Hinson, a USC grad and erstwhile KABC-TV intern, has taken to trash-talking the Golden State — “I don’t want to spot the state look for illustration California” — because that’s what Republicans do these days.)

Which leaves Texas, onshore of shattered Democratic dreams.

It’s been much than 3 decades since the statement has won a statewide election. Ever since, Democrats person insisted this is the twelvemonth they’d extremity their losing streak.

They’ve tried various approaches. A “dream team” that consisted of a slate of Black, achromatic and Latino nominees. A summons topped by political personage Wendy Davis, of filibuster fame. An out-of-nowhere phenom by the sanction of Beto O’Rourke. All failed.

This time, Democrats are hoping for an assistance from the GOP.

Republican Sen. John Cornyn is seeking his 5th word and faces the state’s lawyer general, Ken Paxton, successful a superior that’s already grown fierce and ugly.

Paxton is MAGA down to the soles of his feet, which would usually springiness him a large advantage successful a GOP primary. But his history — allegations of bribery and corruption, an impeachment trial, a messy divorcement — person near him successful bad odor pinch galore Republicans.

The GOP’s Senate run committee and Majority Leader John Thune person aggressively thrown their weight down Cornyn, though Trump has truthful acold remained neutral.

Democrats would emotion to tally against Paxton, fixed polls suggesting a competitory title if he’s the nominee. First, though, they’ll person to benignant retired their ain primary.

Supporters cheer arsenic authorities Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) kicks disconnected his run for U.S. Senate astatine Centennial Plaza successful Round Rock connected Sept. 9.

(Mikala Compton/The Austin American-Statesman / Getty Images)

Colin Allred, the erstwhile NFL linebacker who mislaid successful November to Ted Cruz, is moving again and faces James Talarico, a authorities typical and seminarian from the Austin area, who’s became an online sensation pinch his godly persona and viral take-down of blimpish pieties. O’Rourke besides hasn’t ruled retired different effort for Senate.

Garry Mauro, a Democrat and erstwhile Texas onshore commissioner, is clear-eyed successful assessing his party’s prospects.

“If you tally connected the correct issues and don’t time off yourself a crazy extremist ... past I deliberation you person a existent chance of building a winning race,” he said. But “to opportunity this isn’t a leaning-R authorities would beryllium Pollyannish, and I’m not Pollyannish.”

Which intends counting connected the Lone Star to present a Democratic-run U.S. Senate is simply a spot for illustration trusting a drunken gambler to sphere and protect your rent money.

That’s why Democrats are betting the House successful hopes of corralling Trump.