John Cornyn Fights For Political Survival As Early Voting Kicks Off In Texas: From The Politics Desk - Beritaja

This is the online type of From the Politics Desk, a regular newsletter that brings you the Beritaja Politics team’s latest reporting and study from the White House, Capitol Hill and the run trail.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki takes banal of the Texas GOP Senate superior arsenic early voting gets underway. Plus, Sahil Kapur reports connected the increasing support for an elections measure backed by President Donald Trump successful the Senate.

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— Adam Wollner

John Cornyn fights for governmental endurance arsenic early voting kicks disconnected successful Texas

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

Early voting began coming successful Texas, wherever the superior connected March 3 will service arsenic the de facto midterm kickoff. The biggest question: Can GOP Sen. John Cornyn debar becoming the first incumbent legislator since 2012 to beryllium denied renomination?

Most likely, the Republican title will not beryllium formally decided connected superior night, pinch a runoff looming if nary campaigner breaks 50% of the vote. But the signs are ominous for Cornyn, and an underwhelming showing successful the first information of voting could each but seal his fate.

A canvass of apt superior voters from the University of Houston released past week showed Cornyn lagging down Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, 38% to 31%, pinch Rep. Wesley Hunt moving successful 3rd pinch 17%. More troubling for Cornyn, the canvass showed him losing by 11 points to Paxton successful a one-on-one runoff. And it recovered that Paxton was acold much celebrated pinch GOP voters: He had a 50-point nett favorable standing compared pinch 31 for Cornyn.

Cornyn and his friends are flooding the airwaves pinch attacks connected Paxton, who was impeached by the GOP-controlled Texas House successful 2023 and past acquitted successful the authorities Senate. He besides agreed successful 2024 to salary about $300,000 arsenic portion of a woody to extremity a about decade-long securities fraud case. Cornyn’s dream is that Republican voters could beryllium turned distant from Paxton by fearfulness that he would make a ripe target for Democrats and put the spot astatine consequence successful November.

But the University of Houston canvass recovered some Cornyn and Paxton moving almost identically against either imaginable Democratic nominee, Rep. Jasmine Crockett aliases authorities Rep. James Talarico. Paxton could besides activity to reassure GOP voters by pointing to his ain expertise to triumph re-election arsenic lawyer wide successful 2022, moreover pinch his ineligible woes connected afloat display. Paxton won that predetermination by 9.8 points, not acold disconnected Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s 10.9-point separator successful his ain re-election race.

If they are already inclined to return a chance connected him, Texas Republicans whitethorn besides beryllium consenting to widen Paxton the use of the uncertainty based connected President Donald Trump’s unexpectedly ascendant victory successful the authorities successful 2024 (nearly 14 points) and the truth that nary Democrat has won a statewide title successful 32 years. Republicans are besides assured that some Crockett and Talarico person taken positions that will make them unelectable successful the fall.

Ultimately, Cornyn’s champion — and possibly only — chance astatine endurance whitethorn hinge connected convincing Trump to endorse him. The president, who maintained his neutral posture successful comments to reporters past night, does not for illustration to connect his sanction to candidates who don’t person a clear way to victory. Obviously, the further Cornyn finishes down Paxton connected March 3, the weaker he would beryllium heading into the runoff — and the tougher his waste to Trump would become.

Polling successful the Democratic superior has been tougher to gauge. The University of Houston study put Crockett up by 7 points, 46% to 39%, but a January Emerson College poll gave Talarico the lead and different study from Texas Public Opinion Research showed a dormant heat.

➡️ Related: “Late Show” big Stephen Colbert said CBS did not aerial his question and reply yesterday pinch Talarico retired of fearfulness of the Federal Communications Commission. Read much →

Support for Trump’s predetermination measure is increasing successful the Senate, but Democrats could still artifact it

By Sahil Kapur

The SAVE America Act to require impervious of citizenship nationwide to ballot now has support from 50 Republican senators.

The measure is supported by President Donald Trump and passed the House past week, meaning the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster norm is the only point opinionated successful the measurement of it becoming law.

The tally guarantees a conflict complete the measure connected the Senate level arsenic Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has promised a vote. But he warned past week that location are “not moreover close” to capable votes for getting free of the filibuster, contempt Trump’s calls to do so. If the filibuster remains intact, the authorities will still neglect arsenic Democrats are definite to usage each instrumentality to artifact it.

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, the main sponsor of the bill, is pushing Republicans to usage existing rules to unit Democrats to prosecute successful a “talking filibuster” connected the Senate floor. The thought is to tyre retired opposing Democrats and walk it. But the maneuver is simply a agelong shot, viewed by erstwhile Senate majorities arsenic doomed to neglect if attempted. The rules make it considerably easier for a filibustering number to prolong the 60-vote period than for a mostly to break their will and beforehand a measure pinch 51 votes.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who faces a competitory re-election bid this fall, became the 50th Republican protagonist of the legislation. She said the revisions to the measure resoluteness her earlier concerns by easing the proof-of-citizenship norm for casting a ballot, alternatively requiring states to spot it only erstwhile registering a personification to vote.

But Collins made clear she does not support gutting the filibuster to walk it.

“I reason eliminating the legislative filibuster,” Collins said. “The filibuster is an important protection for the authorities of the number statement that requires senators to activity together successful the champion liking of the country.”

Some successful the statement person not signed connected to the measure, including Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

Read much →

That’s each From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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